Semiconductor Industry Could Short Out As Copper Runs Dry

Climate change could pose a threat to the technology industry as copper production is vulnerable to drought, while demand may grow to outstrip supply anyway.

According to a report out today from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), copper mines require a steady water supply to function, and many are situated in places around the world that face a growing risk of severe drought due to shifts in climate.

It takes 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine

Copper is almost ubiquitous in IT hardware because of its excellent electrical conductivity, from the tracks on circuit boards to cabling and even the interconnects on microchips. PwC's report focuses just on chips, and claims that nearly a third (32 percent) of global semiconductor production will be reliant on copper supplies that are at risk from climate disruption by 2035.

If something is not done to rein in climate change, like drastically cutting greenhouse gas emissions, then the share of copper supply at risk rises to 58 percent by 2050, PwC claims. As this seems increasingly unlikely, it advises both copper exporters and semiconductor buyers to adapt their supply chains and practices if they are to ride out the risk.

Currently, of the countries or territories that supply the semiconductor industry with copper, the report states that only Chile faces severe drought risks. But within a decade, copper mines in the majority of the 17 countries that source the metal will be facing severe drought risks.

PwC says there is an urgent need to strengthen supply chain resilience. Some businesses are taking action, but many investors believe companies should step up their efforts when it comes to de-risking their supply chain, the firm adds.

According to the report, mining companies can alleviate some of the supply issues by investing in desalination plants, improving water efficiency and recycling water.

Semiconductor makers could use alternative materials, diversify their suppliers, and adopt measures such as recycling and taking advantage of the circular economy.

This could be good news for telecoms operators, which have been scrapping their legacy telephone-era copper cabling in favor of optical fiber. An estimate published last year reckoned there could be 800,000 metric tons of the stuff that could be harvested in the next ten years, potentially worth over $7 billion.

However, an earlier report from S&P Global published in 2022 claimed that worldwide demand for the lustrous metal is likely to double from 25 million metric tons to 50 million by 2035, and the supply will not be able to keep pace.

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One solution would be to open more copper mines, but that takes time – 16 years, on average, to develop a new mine – meaning that any opened today would not be productive in time to accommodate the forecast spike in demand. However, recycling of copper was not expected to be enough to fill the gap either, according to S&P.

So copper is facing a double whammy of rising demand and climate change threatening the viability of supplies.

This was backed up recently by the International Energy Agency (IEA), which reckons supplies of copper will fall 30 percent short of the volume required by 2035 if nothing is done to open up new sources.

One solution is for developed countries to do more refining of copper – plus other key metals needed for industry – and form partnerships with developing countries to help open up supplies, executive director Fatih Birol told The Guardian.

Meanwhile, PwC's report prefers to highlight the need for businesses to understand the risks facing supply chains.

"We can act now by understanding and managing risks to supply, including the physical risks of climate change," commented Glenn Burm, Global Semiconductors Leader for PwC South Korea.

"Around the world, companies are adapting by boosting water production, diversifying supply chains, and strengthening climate resilience. There's great progress, but businesses can and should do more." ®