The Tell: Here Comes The Central-bank Punch — And It Might Not Juice Stocks Much

Central bankers across the world are set to fill up the proverbial punch bowl, but it may not juice stock markets much.

That’s according to a new strategy note from Deutsche Bank, which outlined what it expects major central banks around the world to do in the coming months.

Central bank Expected action
U.S. Federal Reserve Three cuts in 2019
European Central Bank 10-basis-point cut in September and December, maybe more QE and “tiering” in September
Bank of Japan On hold with no changes in target yields possibly into 2020
Bank of England No hikes until August 2020
People’s Bank of China To cut open market operations rate by 10 to 50 basis points, and one reserve requirement ratio cut
Emerging markets Cuts coming in Russia, South Africa, Turkey, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Brazil and Chile

Related: It’s the ECB’s turn to take a step toward further easing when it meets Thursday

That should help limit slowing growth momentum, and Deutsche Bank sees world growth of around 3.2% this year. The monetary-policy actions, the Deutsche Bank strategists say, should allow for “cautious” near-term growth, as the central-bank easing counteracts political and trade headwinds.

Related: IMF cuts its global growth forecast again

Equity markets already are pricing in a strong rebound in growth, limiting the potential for upside.

This year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.47% has gained 17%, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.03% has jumped 20% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.24% has risen 24%.

The Deutsche Bank strategists also don’t see much movement in either Treasurys TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.39% or German bunds, expecting them to trade close to flat from current levels.

They’re “strategically bullish” on the euro EURUSD, -0.0807% and the yen USDJPY, -0.11% but neutral on the U.S. dollar DXY, -0.05%  .

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