Need To Know: This Jumpy Stock Market May Have Found A Bottom — Heres Why

It’s Friday the 13th and earnings day for three big banks, as the S&P 500 tries to flip green for the year.

Meanwhile, Russia is warning that American strikes on Syria could bring war, and China’s trade surplus with the U.S. just surged. President Trump is pardoning Scooter Libby, probing the postal service and probably not talking to Robert Mueller (and definitely not James Comey).

So perhaps today of all days — with apologies to “Dirty Harry” — you’ve gotta ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”

You maybe should, suggests our call of the day, which comes from David Templeton at Horan Capital Advisors.

“With much of the sentiment now decidedly bearish, just possibly the market is nearing a bottom,” he writes in a blog post.

The latest figures on feelings from the American Association of Individual Investors have Templeton’s attention.

“Bearish sentiment jumped 6.1 percentage points to 42.8%, resulting in the bull/bear spread being reported at a negative 16.7 percentage points, the widest negative spread in more than a year,” he notes.

The AAII survey is often used as a contrarian indicator, meaning traders turn upbeat when its readings get gloomier. And that’s what the numbers just did. One respondent griped to AAII about “too much uncertainty coming from the White House” amid high equity valuations.

Templeton highlights that a different survey — one from Investor Intelligence that tracks newsletter writers — also is showing far less bullishness.

On the other hand, Josh “The Reformed Broker” Brown doesn’t sound like he’s willing to call any sort of bottom for the S&P, even as he sees a recent floor around 2,550. He writes: “So the question is, if (when?) we revisit support, will it hold? And what will (most) people do if it doesn’t?”

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow YMM8, +0.63%  , S&P 500 ESM8, +0.54% and Nasdaq-100 NQM8, +0.46% are rising, after the Dow DJIA, +0.64%  , S&P SPX, +0.56% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.56% closed sharply higher yesterday. The S&P is on track for a weekly gain 2.3% as of Thursday’s close, cutting its year-to-date loss to 0.4%.

Bitcoin BTCUSD, +5.96% is staying above $8,000, as sentiment shifts, with Pantera Capital saying the worst is over and Santander SAN, +2.12% launching an app tied to Ripple.

Europe SXXP, +0.44% is gaining, after Asia finished mixed. Oil prices CLM8, +0.28% are staying near three-year highs, as gold GCM8, -0.05% dips and the dollar index DXY, +0.08% edges up.

See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

The stat

The S&P 500 does worse on average on Friday the 13th. On that date, there’s been an annualized 4.2% gain versus a 13% rise for all Fridays, according to LPL Financial data going back to 1928.

LPL’s Ryan Detrick says: “We aren’t in any way saying one day matters more or less than another. Still, wouldn’t you know it — Friday the 13th tends to be a weak day on average, spooky indeed!”

The chart

“U.S. midterm elections come up more and more frequently in my client conversations, and the latest data show that a record number of Republicans and an elevated number of Democrats are not seeking re-election in November,” says Deutsche Bank economist Torsten Slok as he shares the chart above.

The GOP’s “essential problem is that it doesn’t know what it stands for. It doesn’t know what it is,” complains conservative columnist Peggy Noonan.

Don’t miss: Why Paul Ryan’s retirement is a problem for stocks

And: Ryan’s exit a sign of GOP surrender on deficits, entitlements ... and Congress?

The buzz

J.P. Morgan’s JPM, +0.51% earnings beat forecasts, as did Wells Fargo WFC, -1.56% and Citi’s C, +1.37% .

Read: Expect strong earnings for banks, but more questions ahead

In other Washington news, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has suggested the U.S. and allies must carefully calibrate any strike on Syria to ensure that it doesn’t trigger a broader conflict with the Mideast nation’s two biggest backers, Russia and Iran. And there are hopes for renegotiated TPP and Nafta deals.

One real estate fund is reportedly betting Amazon AMZN, +0.25% will pick the Washington, D.C., area for its HQ2. Third Avenue is gobbling up shares in JBG Smith Properties JBGS, +0.79%   , a REIT based in Northern Virginia.

Zillow ZG, -9.89% is getting into buying and flipping homes.

Anxious Russians could be driving a selloff in the Swiss franc USDCHF, +0.0520% EURCHF, +0.0506%  , and Hong Kong has been having to defend its weakening currency USDHKD, +0.0102%  .

SeaWorld’s stock SEAS, +0.03% looks set sink as an SEC action looms.

At 10 a.m. Eastern, watch out for readings on consumer sentiment and job openings.

Check out: MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar

On the Federal Reserve front, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren said more interest-rate hikes may be needed than the central bank now expects. The St. Louis Fed’s James Bullard is also on tap before the opening bell, then the Dallas Fed’s Rob Kaplan talks at a lunch event in Texas.

The London Stock Exchange LSE, +0.35% has named David Schwimmer as its new CEO. No, not that David Schwimmer.

The quote

“We feel safe in saying there will be no apocalypse on April 23. On that cheerful note, since the world isn’t ending this month, it’s best to file your taxes this weekend as planned.” — Space.com’s Elizabeth Howell takes on conspiracy theorists who say a Biblical rapture is coming in 10 days with the arrival of a “death planet” named Nibiru.

The IRS has said tax returns are not due on April 15 (Sunday) this year, but rather on April 17 (Tuesday).

See: 100 million can file their taxes for free, but only 3 million people do it

And read: The states where people pay the most in taxes — and the least

Random reads

Limit yourself to one alcoholic drink a day, study says.

This writer explains why she’s still all-in on self-driving cars.

Bank of England’s Mark Carney: Brace for a “massacre of the Dilberts.”

With the NHL playoffs underway, Snoop Dogg is teaching “Hockey 101.”

That ESPN+ streaming service doesn’t sound so great.

Cancun endures 14 murders in 36 hours.

Ohio teen dies after his minivan’s rear seat flipped up and pinned him.

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