IEA Sees 2025 Oil Market In Supply Surplus

LONDON: The world’s oil supply will exceed demand in 2025 even if OPEC+ cuts remain in place, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly oil market report on Thursday, as rising production outside the producer group is met by sluggish global demand growth.

“Our current balances suggest that even if the OPEC+ cuts remain in place, global supply exceeds demand by more than 1 million barrels per day next year,” the IEA said.

The Paris-based agency left its 2025 oil demand growth forecast little-changed on the month, expecting oil demand to rise by 990,000 bpd next year.

It meanwhile expects non-OPEC+ supply growth to rise by 1.5 million bpd next year, driven by higher output from the US, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.

In its own monthly oil report on Tuesday, OPEC cut its global oil demand growth forecast this year and next, its fourth consecutive monthly downward revision, on weakness in China, India and other regions.

Global demand growth below 1 million bpd this year follows close to 2 million bpd of growth in 2023, the IEA said.

“The sub-1 million bpd growth pace for both years reflects below-par global economic conditions with the post-pandemic release of pent-up demand now complete,” it said.

Waning Chinese demand continues to hit global oil demand growth, with 2024 annual oil demand growth set to reach just 140,000 bpd, the IEA said, a tenth of the 1.4 million bpd demand growth of 2023.

The rapid development of cleaner energy technologies is also increasingly displacing oil, the agency said in its November report. The IEA made a slight upward adjustment to its 2024 oil demand growth forecast, up by 60,000 bpd on the month to 920,000 bpd, on higher-than-expected gasoil demand in OECD countries in the third quarter.