The Case For Emerging Markets As Political Tensions Ease

The global economy is stabilising as US-China trade talks are making progress and political clouds in the UK have cleared.

Are you still invested in emerging market equities?

However, risks remain. Both the trade dispute and Brexit are far from being fully resolved, economic growth is yet to pick up convincingly and the turn of the year is often accompanied by increased market volatility.

We are neutral on equities, overweight cash and negative on bonds at a global level.

Drilling deeper into the individual asset classes, we like emerging markets (EM) - both in equities and in fixed income. 

EM assets are likely to benefit from a weaker dollar, as well as expected fiscal and monetary stimulus from China in the coming months.

The region's inflationary pressures are muted - in many cases inflation is below the 20-year average. This should allow EM central banks to cut rates further, supporting growth. 

What is more, EM real bond yields are almost 300 basis points above those of developed market bonds, compared with a long-run average of between 150 and 200 basis points, suggesting scope for further gains.

We are particularly positive on Mexican and Russian bonds. In both countries, growth is accelerating, primary government budgets are in surplus, debt-to-GDP levels are among the lowest in the world, and inflation has fallen well below 4%, while official rates are around 7%.

Elsewhere, we like UK stocks and sterling. Easing political tensions should encourage international investors to raise their allocation to UK stocks, which are among the cheapest in the world, according to our scorecard.

The UK market's dividend yield of 5%, twice that of the MSCI All-Country World index, should appeal to global investors.

What is more, the industry breakdown of UK indices means investors can gain greater exposure to sectors we favour at a global level: cyclical value stocks such as banks, and quality defensives such as pharmaceuticals.

Supriya Menon is senior multi asset strategist at Pictet Asset Management 

Bull Points

• Growth in EM economies is outpacing that of developed peers 

• UK equities and sterling likely to outperform as easing domestic political tensions should encourage foreign investors to raise allocation

Bear Points

• US-China trade dispute and Brexit are far from being fully resolved and economic growth is yet to pick up convincingly

• Consumer confidence could fall should manufacturing and trade conditions fail to stabilise