Bank Of England Begins Bond Market Stress Test

The "system-wide exploratory scenario" (SWES) will combine elements of the shocks observed following both the LDI crisis that arose from the Mini Budget and the ‘dash for cash' at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The SWES will model a ten-day scenario, with the first day witnessing yields on 10-year gilts increasing by about 45 basis points, exceeding the largest historical observations.

Overall, the scenario will see a 1.15 percentage point increase in gilt yields, a 1.3 percentage point increase in investment-grade borrowing costs, and a 0.75 percentage point rise in US Treasury yields.

Andrew Bailey warns of risks to world economy posed by 'fragmentation'

The Bank of England has said the scenario was not a forecast, "neither does it represent the bank's expectation of the consequences for financial markets of any particular shock".

The central bank hoped that the SWES would enhance its understanding of the risks to and from non-bank financial institutions, as well as their behaviour in a stress.

Following the test, the central bank will receive responses from institutions in January and produce a report on the exercise by the end of next year.

RECENT NEWS

What Advisers Misunderstand About Protection

Protection is rarely rejected outright. More often, it is misunderstood. Most advisers recognise th... Read more

Gyrostat Market Outlook: Looking Beyond The 30-day Volatility Headlines

This outlook examines how financial markets are pricing risk rather than attempting to forecast market... Read more

Gyrostat Capital Management: The Hidden Assumption In Most Portfolios - Stability

Markets do not usually fail portfolios. Assumptions do. Most portfolios are built with car... Read more

Gyrostat February Outlook: Stewardship As Risk Reprices

This monthly outlook examines how financial markets are pricing risk, rather than attempting to forecast ... Read more

Gyrostat Capital Management: Why Risk Management Is Not About Predicting Risk

Why Risk Management is Not About Predicting Risk Financial markets reward confidence, but they punish certai... Read more

Gyrostat January Outlook: Calm At Multiyear Extremes

This monthly Gyrostat Risk-Managed Market Outlook does not attempt to forecast market direction. Its p... Read more