Kuwait Expects 12% Rise In Budget Deficit To $20bn For 2025-2026

JEDDAH: Kuwait’s government projected its budget deficit to rise by 11.9 percent to 6.31 billion Kuwaiti dinars ($20.4 billion) for the fiscal year 2025-2026, up from the 5.6 billion dinars shortfall estimated for the current fiscal period. 

The Cabinet approved the draft budget on Feb. 2 for the upcoming fiscal year, which will be submitted for final approval by the Emir, Sheikh Meshal Al-Ahmed Al-Sabah. 

In a brief statement following an extraordinary meeting, the Cabinet said the government expects revenues to total 18.2 billion dinars, a decrease from the 18.9 billion dinars forecast for 2024-2025. Expenditures are projected at 24.5 billion dinars, slightly lower than the 24.6 billion dinars allocated for the current year. 

This comes amid growing economic challenges in Kuwait, with a recent report from the International Monetary Fund forecasting a 2.8 percent contraction in 2024, followed by a recovery in 2025. The IMF highlighted risks related to oil dependence and delays in reforms, though it also noted signs of recovery in the non-oil sector despite a contraction in the oil sector.

Despite the projected deficit for the full fiscal year, Kuwait posted a budget surplus of 150.4 million dinars in the first half of 2024-25, according to Finance Ministry figures released in November. The surplus was attributed to higher revenues and reduced spending. 

The draft budget for the period from April 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026, includes projected oil revenues of 15.3 billion dinars, reflecting a 5.7 percent decline from the current budget. Non-oil revenues are expected to rise by 9 percent, reaching 2.92 billion dinars, as stated by Minister of Finance and Minister of State for Economic and Investment Affairs Noura Al-Fassam. 

The finance minister stated that total estimated revenues decreased by 3.6 percent, with oil revenues, estimated at 15.3 billion dinars, falling by 5.7 percent for the current budget ending on Mar. 31, 2025. 

She added that wages and subsidies are expected to account for 79.5 percent of total spending, with capital expenditures estimated at just 9.1 percent. Additionally, non-oil revenues are projected at 2.92 billion dinars, reflecting a 9 percent increase from the current budget. 

The finance minister noted that the government is budgeting for an oil price of $68 per barrel for the upcoming fiscal year, although the breakeven price needed to cover the fiscal deficit is pegged at $90.5 per barrel.