US PCE Price Index data edged higher yesterday, sending the annualised rate ticking up month over month, giving wind to a potentially more hawkish bias at the Fed.
- Yesterday saw a release of US PCE Price Index data, which came in as expected at a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and an annualised increase of 2.8%, up from last month’s comparable rate of 2.7%. Although these numbers were expected, they put the stickiness of inflationary pressure as 2% is approached in focus, which sent most stock markets a bit lower. However, the US Dollar also declined, so maybe markets were not very impacted by this release after all.
- Yesterday’s other major data releases were US Advance GDP and US Unemployment Claims, and both came in as expected, with GDP holding steady at an annualised rate of 2.8%.
- In the Forex market, the Canadian Dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open, while the Japanese Yen has been the weakest, although the numbers were so relatively small that they probably don’t signify much. The greenback is in a long-term bullish trend although it is falling. Any renewed strength in the greenback might be best exploited by going short of EUR/USD, but this currency pair has rebounded since spiking down to a new 2-year low on Friday below $1.0350. However, this is in a long-term bearish trend.
- The cryptocurrency Bitcoin has begun to recover and resume its upward trajectory as news emerged that the incoming Trump administration will likely task the CFTC with regulating crypto, and of the identities of Trump’s likely picks to head the CFTC and the SEC.
- President-Elect Trump tweeted yesterday that the President of Mexico had agreed with him to curb illegal migration over the US border, drawing a denial from President Sheinbaum. This caused a little movement in the USD/MXN currency pair, which has already been showing volatility since Trump announced an intended 25% tariff on Mexican imports into the USA.
- It is a public holiday in the USA today (Thanksgiving), so most US markets will be closed, and the Forex market will likely see abnormally low liquidity during today’s New York session.
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