Key US GDP data released earlier today confirmed that the UK economy has entered a technical recession after two consecutive quarters of shrinking GDP.
- UK GDP data released earlier today showed a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product over the past quarter, with the monthly slightly better than the fall of 0.2% which was widely expected. The data also confirmed GDP shrank over the previous quarter, confirming that the UK has now technically gone into recession after showing two consecutive quarters of economic contraction. The British Pound reacted little to this data release.
- Global stock markets have mostly bounced back over the past day following robust earnings data and more optimism over the tech sector. Trend traders will still look to be involved on the long side of major US equity indices, and day traders may consider trading these indices long if they show bullish momentum after the market opens. The S&P 500 Index has regained the 5000 level.
- In the Forex market, the Japanese Yen has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today. The British Pound has been the weakest. The highest volatility recently has been seen in the USD/JPY currency pair, and in Yen crosses, although this is starting to decline. Despite the short-term fall by the US Dollar, it has some bullish momentum, with the Dollar Index DXY reaching a new 3-month high in recent days.
- The Japanese Yen remains weak backed by several factors, such as the Japanese recession, very low domestic demand, and an outflow into global equities. Recent data also confirmed Japan is no longer the world’s 3rd largest economy. These factors will likely make it very difficult for the Bank of Japan to begin moving away from its ultra-lose monetary policy.
- Cocoa futures are making a bullish consolidation just under the recent multi-year high. Trend traders will remain interested in this commodity on the long side. It has been exhibiting a powerful bullish trend for well over one year. Cocoa futures are up by more than 25% since the start of 2024.
- Bitcoin has got established above the big round number at $50k. It reached a new 20-month high above $52,000 in recent hours. Trend traders and investors will be interested in Bitcoin on the long side.
- There will be releases today of three high-impact items of US data:
- Retail Sales
- Empire State Manufacturing Index
- Unemployment Claims
