Forex Today: Market Expecting US Inflation To Rise To 2.5% - 11 June 2025

Markets are awaiting the release of US CPI data today, which is expected to show an increase in the annualized rate from 2.3% to 2.5%.

1. There will be a key data release today which is usually the most important monthly event in the Forex market: US CPI (inflation) data. This could be decisive for the US Dollar, which is near long-term lows and a key support level. A higher-than-expected number will likely boost the greenback, while a lower than expected number could see it fall, although that would probably boost US stocks.

2. Bitcoin

   is in focus again after making a new record high at $112,000 only two weeks ago. It went on to make a deep retracement, shaking out many trend traders, but yesterday finally made a notably strong rise, overcoming three key resistance levels. The price has made a natural retracement but is still trading around $110,000 easily within sight of the all-time high at $112,000. If the price closes above that level at the end of the New York session today, a lot of trend traders will get back in with long positions. The best way to invest in Bitcoin over the long-term is either by buying Bitcoin directly, buying a Bitcoin future (micro futures of only 0.1 Bitcoin are available on the CME), or a Bitcoin ETF (there are several, for example BITO).

3. Silver

   and the precious metal

   Palladium

   are consolidating after making new long-term highs on Monday. Trend traders will be interested in going long here if we see further long-term highs as New York closes today. Palladium futures are expensive, but a Palladium ETF (PALL) is available as a suitable vehicle for many.

4. WTI Crude Oil

   reached another 2-month high yesterday but then closed lower. It is now rising again.

5. Talks between the US and China concluded yesterday on a positive note, which has been positive for the Chinese stock market. This news may also boost US stocks later.

6. The US and Mexico are close to a deal on steel import tariffs. The Mexican Dollar has continued to strengthen, and

   the USD/MXN currency pair

   is very close to its lowest price since August 2024.