The Israel / Iran war has gone to a ceasefire which has held for two hours, sending risky assets higher and safe haven assets lower.
A few hours ago, President Trump made a surprise announcement that a ceasefire had been agreed between Israel and Iran which would begin at 7am IST (Israel standard time). There are no details on any agreed terms beyond "peace-for-peace". This came mere hours after a purely symbolic Iranian "response" targeting the US military base in Qatar. Shortly after 9am IST Israel confirmed it would accept the ceasefire, and with Iran already stating they would cease fire if Israel did, we might be seeing the end of this war, or at least this battle.
The Trump administration has, interestingly, bothered to give the Israel / Iran war a name - the "12 Day War". There are two reasons for this choice of name:
Echo the 6 Day War (a major Israeli military victory in 1967)
To make sure everyone understands that the war ends today.
All parties have good reasons to keep the ceasefire, so it is likely to hold.
Markets began reacting with increased risk-on sentiment as soon as the laughable nature of the Iranian response became obvious, which then increased after President Trump's announcement of the ceasefire a few hours later, with
WTI Crude Oilquickly falling strongly to trade below $71. At the time of writing, it had just traded below $65. Stock markets are rising, with
the S&P 500 Indexrising strongly to a level not seen since February, only about 50 points below the all-time high price which was made that month. The US Dollar is selling off firmly.
Goldis acting as a safe haven and falling to fresh lows.
It is likely that the risk-on mood will continue, although this might depend on the attitude taken by whoever is running Iran right now.
The Forex market is showing more price movement and volatility. Since the Tokyo open, the strongest major currency has been the New Zealand Dollar, while the weakest has been the Swiss Franc, putting
the NZD/CHF currency crossin focus.
The EUR/USD currency pairhas risen in line with its bullish long-term trend, approaching a new multi-month high. The US Dollar has sold off firmly.
Flash Services & Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday for the USA, Germany, the UK, and France was worse than expected in France and better than expected in the other three countries.
Canadian CPI (inflation data will be released later today.
After the US markets open, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be testifying before House of Congress about the semiannual Monetary Policy Report.
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