Global equities continue recovery to approach record highs made last February, but US equities seem to be facing strong resistance.
Stock markets have mostly recovered over recent week, with the MSCI All-Country World Index only 0.5% from the record high it made on 18th February. It has risen by 19% from its low after President Trump announced stiff tariff plans and then postponed most of it until July. Despite this bullishness and yesterday's broad rise, it is clear that major US indices are facing stiff overhead resistance, with the S&P 500 Index unable to reach let alone clear the big round number at 6,000.
US ISM Manufacturing PMI data released yesterday showed US manufacturing contracting for a third consecutive month, with suppliers' inputs later than at any time seen in the last 3 years due to tariff fears. It is clear that tariffs are casting a shadow and this will likely increase as we approach Trump's July deadline for the tariffs and rates to be resolved.
Swiss CPI data was announced earlier today which showed inflation rising by 0.1% month-on-month as expected.
In the Forex market the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open has been the US Dollar, while the Australian Dollar has been the weakest. This is counter to the dominant recent trend but a souring of risk-on sentiment seems to be happening today.
- Bitcoin
remains in focus after reaching a new record high two weeks ago at $112,00. However, the price seems to have rejected new resistance below $107,000 so the technical picture is looking somewhat bearish.
The Governor of the Bank of Japan will be giving a speech today which could affect the Yen if he says anything relevant.
There will be releases today of:
US JOLTS Job Openings
Australian GDP