Mirai Labs - A View Of The Crypto

Garrison Yang, Co-Founder of Web3 Development Studio Mirai Labs:

• Ethereum up 5% (ETH/BTC +3%) on April Fools is hilarious.

• ETH hasn’t had inflows in two weeks on its ETF product, and it’s pretty clear there isn’t nearly as much traditional liquidity interest in ETH compared to BTC. As a technology, Ethereum probably always has a place — so it has some relevance — but as an asset, it’s pretty clear that $244 billion or whatever it’s at is overvalued. Maybe that’s a sign our entire framework for valuing major L1 networks is skewed. I’m not sure what the future holds.

• That said, even though it’s becoming consensus that ETH is likely to keep trending lower (especially vs. BTC), it’s been so drawn down lately that it’s susceptible to mechanical bounces due to positioning alone. Today’s outperformance is exactly that — a positioning/liquidity-driven bounce.

• Leaning toward the market having aggressively priced in a worst-case scenario around Trump’s “liberation day” coming into today’s session. But with yesterday’s intraday reversal and the move off the open today, there’s probably less consensus now than ever.

• Crypto is still the tail, and equities + macro are leading. Many altcoins — including Ethereum — have been absolutely pummeled. That’s why you’re seeing a strong reaction off equities strength. Even if most alts are still path-independent to zero, they can rip purely based on liquidity and positioning. Remember: some of these tokens (like ai16z) have a few hundred million in market cap, and far less in actual liquidity.