Bitcoin Price Prediction As U.S. Government Shutdown Risk Shakes Markets

Bitcoin price held steady on Saturday, reaching a high of $70,000 for the first time in days, even as a partial government shutdown started in the United States. 

Bitcoin (BTC) rose to $70,000, up substantially from the year-to-date low of $60,000. The rebound coincided with Friday’s stock market rally and the broader crypto market recovery.

Bitcoin’s price action happened as a partial government shutdown started in the US. This shutdown is now affecting the Department of Homeland Security, with key departments like the TSA and the Coast Guard being affected. 

The main issue is that Democrats have insisted that they will not approve any funding unless reforms to ICE are implemented after the fatal shooting of Renee Good and Alex Pretti in Minneapolis.

Still, Bitcoin price is rarely affected by key events like a government shutdown. For example, the coin jumped to a record high in October last year as the US experienced the longest shutdown on record.

The main catalyst for the ongoing Bitcoin price recovery is the view that the Federal Reserve may deliver more interest rate cuts this year than expected. Data on Polymarket shows that the odds of three and four rate cuts have risen in the past few days.

These odds rose after the US published the latest consumer inflation and non-farm payrolls data. A report on Wednesday showed that the economy added over 130,000 jobs in January as the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%.

Another report released last Friday showed that the headline Consumer Price Index slipped to 2.4% in January from the previous 2.7%. Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy prices, remained at 2.5%.

Bitcoin price also rose after investors cautiously bought spot BTC ETFs. Data compiled by SoSoValue shows that spot ETFs added over $15 million in assets on Friday.

The daily chart shows that the BTC price rebounded to $70,000 from the year-to-date low of $60,000. The two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator are about to have a bullish crossover. Also, the Relative Strength Index has moved from the oversold level to the current 37.

Therefore, there is a possibility that the coin will continue rising as bulls target the 50-day moving average at $81,000. On the other hand, a drop below the year-to-date low of $60,000 will invalidate the bullish outlook.