UK Faces Losses Of $140bn Over Coming Decade If 'no-deal' Brexit Goes Through

The UK faces economic losses of around $140bn (£105bn) in the first decade after Brexit if it fails to secure a free trade deal with the European Union, a US think tank has warned.

The Rand Corporation said Britain would lose about 5% of its gross domestic product over the 10-year period if it leaves the EU with no deal and operates under World Trade Organization (WTO) rules.

The think tank said the UK would face significantly increased non-tariff barriers under WTO rules, harming the ability of British businesses to sell goods and services to EU countries.

The EU would also face losses under a "no deal" Brexit scenario, but the effect would be relatively minor at 0.7% GDP lost over the span of a decade.

"The analysis clearly shows that the UK will be economically worse off outside of the EU under most trade scenarios. The key question for the UK is how much worse off," said Charles Ries, vice president international at Rand.

"It is in the best interests of the UK, and to a lesser extent the EU, to achieve some sort of open trading and investment relationship post Brexit."

Rand says the UK is destined to suffer economic losses no matter what trade agreement it emerges with, compared to if it had continued to stay in the EU.

It said the trade deal that would offer the most benefit for Britain would be a trilateral UK-EU-US free trade agreement, although the think tank acknowledged that such a deal was highly unlikely in the current political climate.

"Based on our insights, it is in the best interests of the UK to cooperate with its EU partners to find a new relationship with Europe," Ries explained.

"This would preserve economic benefits for both sides, but also give the UK the freedom from EU rules which it seeks."

However, Ries warned that Brussels may adopt a "zero-sum game" and not give too much away to the UK to preserve the strength of the EU.

A separate analysis by accountants EY predicted that London would lose 10,500 jobs on the first day after Brexit, with Dublin and Frankfurt among the cities set to benefit from the UK capital's loss.

RECENT NEWS

Global Fund Groups Set To Hit $200tn

Global fund groups set to hit $200tn in assets by 2030, says PwCThe global fund management industry is expected to reach... Read more

Underperform And Report To Office: AHL's Struggles Trigger Policy Shift At Man Group

Man Group, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, has ordered staff at its flagship systematic trading unit AHL to re... Read more

Asia's Quiet Hedge Fund Star: Arrowpoint Rides Tariff Waves To Strong Gains

While some hedge funds chase headlines and media attention, others prefer to let performance speak for itself. Arrowpoin... Read more

China's Contrarian Hedge Fund Star Bags 1,485% Return

In a year when many global investors remained wary of China’s turbulent markets, one homegrown hedge fund has delivere... Read more

Beyond The Black Box: How Hedge Funds Are Systematically Embedding AI Into Core Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been discussed in hedge fund circles as a powerful but opaque tool—useful in the... Read more

Hedge Funds Rebuild Long Positions In Oil

Brent Crude Rally Gains Momentum After Diplomatic Thaw Hedge funds have significantly increased their bullish bets on B... Read more