UK Economic Growth 'continues To Stabilise' Showing Only 'modest' Brexit Jitters

Economic growth in the United Kingdom further stabilised in the third quarter, suggesting the negative impact of the country's vote to leave the European Union has been relatively modest to date, according to fresh research.

Ratings agency Moody's recently published Brexit Monitor notes that growth indicators paint a mixed picture at the start of the fourth quarter. Surveys suggest that overall GDP has continued to expand, led by services, but retail spending by consumers and sentiment has been muted.

Overall, the slowdown in consumption growth in 2017 has been accompanied by a recovery in the UK's trade balance year-on-year.

Hiring intentions data suggest that muted labour market growth will continue, while a further moderation in residential house price inflation is expected in the months ahead, Moody's observed.

"UK economic growth continued to stabilise in the third quarter, reaffirming our view of a moderate negative impact of Brexit on the economy so far," said Colin Ellis, managing director at Moody's and co-author of the Brexit Monitor.

"Producer prices pressures, which have subsequently been reflected in higher consumer prices since the vote to leave, cooled significantly in October, consistent with our expectation of inflation peaking over the coming months," he added.

The rating agency said businesses expect investment to expand, albeit gradually, as the rebound in capital spending intentions throughout 2017 stagnated in recent months, with volatility increasing in the services sector.

Financial conditions are set to "tread water" in the near-term as markets see limited scope for a further increase in policy rates in 2018 after the Bank of England's 25 basis points interest rate hike in November.

"The key political developments since the last Brexit Monitor has been the EU still seeing insufficient progress on the topics of the Irish border and financial settlement in the negotiations since EU-27 leaders have urged closer agreements to be achieved before launching talks on the UK's future relationship with the EU," Moody's concluded.

RECENT NEWS

Global Fund Groups Set To Hit $200tn

Global fund groups set to hit $200tn in assets by 2030, says PwCThe global fund management industry is expected to reach... Read more

Underperform And Report To Office: AHL's Struggles Trigger Policy Shift At Man Group

Man Group, one of the world’s largest hedge funds, has ordered staff at its flagship systematic trading unit AHL to re... Read more

Asia's Quiet Hedge Fund Star: Arrowpoint Rides Tariff Waves To Strong Gains

While some hedge funds chase headlines and media attention, others prefer to let performance speak for itself. Arrowpoin... Read more

China's Contrarian Hedge Fund Star Bags 1,485% Return

In a year when many global investors remained wary of China’s turbulent markets, one homegrown hedge fund has delivere... Read more

Beyond The Black Box: How Hedge Funds Are Systematically Embedding AI Into Core Operations

Artificial intelligence (AI) has long been discussed in hedge fund circles as a powerful but opaque tool—useful in the... Read more

Hedge Funds Rebuild Long Positions In Oil

Brent Crude Rally Gains Momentum After Diplomatic Thaw Hedge funds have significantly increased their bullish bets on B... Read more