Resellers May Be Sitting On Costly Pile Of Regret After US Smartphone Shopping Spree

Profiteering resellers stateside filled up on smartphone inventory in calendar Q1 before the scheduled imposition of US tariffs, which have rocked global stock prices and US Treasury bonds since April 2.

Preliminary data released by IDC today shows the volume of phones sold into the channel globally between the start of January and the end of March grew 1.5 percent year-on-year to 304.9 million units.

The US smartphone sector itself bounced by 5 percent, the data indicates.

"Faced with heightened geopolitical uncertainty and the looming threat of substantial US tariff hikes on goods imported from China, vendors strategically accelerated production schedules and pulled forward significant shipment volumes, particularly into the critical US market, during Q1 2025," said Francisco Jeronimo, veep of client devices at IDC.

"This supply-side surge, aimed at mitigating potential cost increases and disruptions, effectively inflated Q1 shipment figures beyond levels anticipated based on underlying consumer demand trends alone," said Jeronimo.

Last week the US imposed triple-digit percentage rises on tariffs for goods imported from China, something the Chinese government branded a "joke" as it retaliated with its own duties on US imports. A 90-day pause on smartphone (and PC) tariffs was subsequently announced by the Trump administration at the weekend.

Resellers may now be regretting their purchases as holding onto excess inventory incurs storage and capital costs.

IDC reckons the reprieve could "further enhance" shipments into the channel in calendar Q2 as resellers again gamble on the chance to hoover up stock "before the possible reintroduction of tariffs that could drive prices up [for end customers]."

However, according to Counterpoint Research's estimates, global smartphone sales to users are likely to fall this year as rising economic uncertainties hit demand across markets, especially in the US. It revised its full-year forecast and now expects volumes to decline slightly year-over-year in 2025.

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Apple seized the top spot from rival Samsung in terms of units sold in Q1, Counterpoint data shows. The US tech and media giant was up 5 percent while the Korean manufacturer was down 5 percent.

In a prepared statement, senior research analyst Ankit Malhotra said it was a mixed start to the year as early optimism from launches such as Samsung's S25 and iPhone 16e was dampened by economic uncertainties and the mounting risk of a trade war.

US President Donald Trump announced "reciprocal" tariffs affecting a broad list of countries on April 2. A tit-for-tat raising of the stakes left China charging a 125 percent tariff on American goods from April 12, while the US is charging a 145 percent tariff on China, where Apple makes most of its phones.

Apple shares rose after the exemption was announced.

Counterpoint Research pointed out that China accounts for about 80 percent of iPhone production for the US, while brands like Motorola and Google will also be affected by tariffs on China-made phones if they are reintroduced. Trump outlined a likely tariff policy during his re-election campaign.

In February, Apple said it would invest in US manufacturing and R&D, announcing plans to spend $500 billion and hire 20,000 people over the next four years in America to support these efforts.

Reports suggest Apple flew 600 tons of iPhones, or as many as 1.5 million, to the United States from India, in a bid to beat the tariffs. ®