Brent Oil Breaks Below $100 On Iran Hormuz Offer—but The Market Isnt Convinced Yet
Brent oil broke below $100 after Iran reportedly offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days, but the qui... Read more
AI Optimism Overrides A More Hawkish Fed As Nasdaq Hits Record, Bitcoin Breaks Out
Nasdaq hit a fresh record and Bitcoin broke above $84,000 just days after the Fed hiked and raised its projected rate ... Read more
Markets Wait On Trump-Xi As Brent Tests $100—AUD And CAD Break From The Pack
Today’s themes: Broad Dollar/FX: little conviction as markets wait for Wednesday’s flash PMIs and this week’s Tr... Read more
AUD/NZD Nears 1.25 As Big Four Align On RBA September Hike, Australian Jobs Data Comes Into Focus
Australia’s Big Four banks now all expect a September RBA hike to 4.60%, but the real disagreement has shifted to ho... Read more
Warshs “Dose Of Accommodation” Overread? 2-Year Yield Runs Ahead Of Fed Futures
Fed Chair Warsh’s description of Wednesday’s hike as removing “a dose of accommodation” drove the 2-year Treas... Read more
AUD Strongest, Yen Weakest As RBA And BoJ Deliver Opposite Policy Surprises
What’s happening: AUD led the major currencies Friday while Yen was weakest. The BoJ hiked its policy rate 25bp to 1... Read more
Silver Correction Ends At 62.27—Can 68.32 Unlock The Path To 80.32?
Silver’s correction from 71.16 completed as a three-wave decline to 62.27, well above the $60 danger zone, with a fi... Read more
USD/JPY Jumps As Back-to-Back BoJ Hike Risk Fades—Can Momentum Carry It Back To 160?
USD/JPY is testing 157.11 as one widening policy differential, not two separate stories—the Fed is accelerating into... Read more
Dollar Retreats As Brent Oil Slips; BoE Minutes Cushion Sterling
Dollar retreated from its post-FOMC highs as Brent crude dropped more than 3% to below $103 and WTI fell around 2.8% t... Read more
Gold Price Absorbs Hawkish Fed Hike—Will 4,368 Confirm A Reversal?
Gold tested its critical 4,230.70 support after Wednesday’s hawkish Fed hike but held, rebounding on a bullish four-... Read more
Dollar Index Completes Double Bottom, Targets 100.59 As Markets Look Beyond Feds 4.1% 2027 Median
The Dollar Index confirmed a double-bottom reversal after Wednesday’s 25bp hike, with the 2-year Treasury yield and ... Read more
One Oil Shock, Two Policy Tests: Fed SEP First, BoE Minutes Next
What’s happening: Today’s Fed hike is effectively certain, 92.4% in CME pricing to near 100% in OIS, with the real... Read more
EUR/USD Targets 1.1471—Will The Feds SEP Validate Four-Hike Pricing?
One Fed hike is effectively certain today, but markets are pricing four hikes total at an approximately quarterly cade... Read more
Silvers $60 Floor Should Hold—Unless Gold Breaks First
Silver’s $60 floor should hold unless gold breaks first. A structural physical-market deficit gives the $60–60.44 ... Read more