Oil Updates – Crude Falls On Demand Growth Concerns, Robust Dollar

LONDON, Dec 20 : Oil prices fell on Friday on worries about demand growth in 2025, especially in top crude importer China, putting global oil benchmarks on track to end the week down more than 3 percent.

Brent crude futures fell by 32 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $72.56 a barrel by 4:09 p.m. Saudi time. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures also eased 32 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $69.06 per barrel.

Chinese state-owned refiner Sinopec said in its annual energy outlook released on Thursday that China’s crude imports could peak as soon as 2025 and the country’s oil consumption would peak by 2027 as diesel and gasoline demand weaken.

“Benchmark crude prices are in a prolonged consolidation phase as the market heads toward the year-end weighed by uncertainty in oil demand growth,” said Emril Jamil, senior research specialist at LSEG.

He added that OPEC+ would require supply discipline to perk up prices and soothe jittery market nerves over continuous revisions of its demand growth outlook. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, recently cut its growth forecast for 2024 global oil demand for a fifth straight month.

JPMorgan sees the oil market moving from balance in 2024 to a surplus of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2025, as the bank forecasts non-OPEC+ supply increasing by 1.8 million bpd in 2025 and OPEC output remaining at current levels.

Meanwhile, the dollar’s climb to near a two-year high also weighed on oil prices, after the US Federal Reserve flagged it would be cautious about cutting interest rates in 2025.

A stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, while a slower pace of rate cuts could dampen economic growth and trim oil demand.

US President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday that the EU may face tariffs if the bloc does not cut its growing deficit with the US by making large oil and gas trades with the world’s largest economy.

In a move that could pare supply, G7 countries are considering ways to tighten the price cap on Russian oil, such as with an outright ban or by lowering the price threshold, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.

Russia has circumvented the $60 per barrel cap imposed in 2022 using its “shadow fleet” of ships, which the EU and UK have targeted with further sanctions in recent days.