President Trump will clearly win the election with a decisive electoral college victory as the first Republican to win the popular vote in 20 years.
- With most votes counted in the US general election, it is clear former President Trump has done far better than predicted by the opinion polls and will easily win both the electoral college and the popular vote. Every swing state looks almost certain to be won by Trump, mostly by margins of 4% to 5%. It also seems almost certain that Republicans will control both Houses of Congress, handing both branches of government to the GOP. Trump’s emerging victory has boosted the “Trump trade” as expected, with US stock markets, the US Dollar, and Bitcoin trading firmly higher. A Trump administration has also been seen as likely to be positive for cryptocurrencies, so it is no surprise that Bitcoin is powering higher to trade at new all-time high prices.
- The Trump trade is mostly seen as follows:
- Long US stock market indices such as the S&P 500, or the NASDAQ 100.
- Long of the US Dollar (maybe USD/JPY as the Yen is relatively weak).
- Long of Bitcoin.
- Long of US Treasury Yields (this is seen by some analysts as a Trump trade, and not by others).
- US stock markets typically rise when a new President is elected and will likely rise by more with the election of President Trump. The S&P 500 index looks likely to reach a new record high later today and is clearly showing strong bullish momentum.
- In the Forex market, the US Dollar has been the strongest major currency since today’s Tokyo open, while the Euro has been the weakest, putting the EUR/USD currency pair in focus. The US Dollar has traded today at multi-month highs against all the major currencies except the Swiss Franc, the British Pound, and the Canadian Dollar.
- Yesterday saw the release of two high-impact economic data releases:
- US ISM Services PMI – this came in higher than expected, suggested the services sector in the USA is outperforming expectations.
- New Zealand Unemployment Rate – this was expected to rise from 4.6% to 5.0% but it only rose to 4.8% suggesting the labour market is tighter than expected.
- There are no major high-impact data releases due today.
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