Forex Today: RBA Holds Rates & Tilts Dovish - 05 December 2023

The Reserve Bank of Australia decided at its policy meeting earlier today to maintain its cash rate at 4.35% and stated that inflation is continuing to moderate, which is seen as a dovish tilt.

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  1. The Reserve Bank of Australia held its Cash Rate at 4.35% at its policy meeting a few hours ago, with Governor Bullock stating that “inflation is continuing to moderate”, which is seen as a dovish tilt, The Australian Dollar weakened somewhat following the release, with the AUD/USD currency pair falling to its lowest level since last Thursday.
  2. After powering to new highs during Monday’s Asian session, risk assets underwent a strong selloff yesterday, which accelerated during the New York session. Gold, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and tech stocks all retreated from long-term highs, with Gold’s selloff probably the most dramatic. Some analysts see this as due to see-sawing sentiment on the prospect of Fed rate hikes, with optimism replaced by pessimism and vice versa on a near-daily basis. Gold reached a record high at $2,135 but fell as low as the $2,020 area, although it has since stabilised slightly above that price area.
  3. Bitcoin has continued to weaken after reaching a new 18-month high a few days above the big round number at $40,000. The cryptocurrency is currently threatening to break below the key support level of $41,706.
  4. The long-term bearish trend in the US Dollar is a key driver in the Forex market, pushed by sentiment that the Federal Reserve had likely ended its current tightening cycle, and would begin to cut rates. However, the US Dollar is currently gaining ground, as it has been doing for the last few days. Since the Tokyo open, the Japanese Yen has been the strongest major currency, while the Australian Dollar has been the weakest.
  5. Cocoa futures are continuing to look bullish after closing Friday at a new multi-year high. This commodity remains very interesting to trend traders on the long side.
  6. Crude Oil is looking weak despite Saudi reassurance on OPEC cuts yesterday, and looks to falling towards a new 4-month low
  7. There are high-impact data releases due today:
  • US ISM Services PMI
  • US JOLTS Job Openings
  • Australian GDP
Adam Lemon

Adam Lemon began his role at DailyForex in 2013 when he was brought in as an in-house Chief Analyst. Adam trades Forex, stocks and other instruments in his own account. Adam believes that it is very possible for retail traders/investors to secure a positive return over time provided they limit their risks, follow trends, and persevere through short-term losing streaks – provided only reputable brokerages are used. He has previously worked within financial markets over a 12-year period, including 6 years with Merrill Lynch.

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