Forex Today: ECB Expected To Cut Rates By 0.25% - 05 June 2025

The European Central Bank will be holding a policy meeting today, and is expected to reduce its Main Refinancing Rate to 2.15%.

1. The main data item on the agenda today is the policy meeting at the ECB, which could have a major effect on the Euro. It is expected that the ECB will cut its main refinancing rate from 2.40% to 2.15%.

2. Two items of economic data released in the USA yesterday suggest that the US economy is slowing down, having the impact of sending markets into a quiet, consolidative state, although recent price movement has been largely risk-on especially in stock markets.

   1. ADP Non-Farm Employment Payrolls forecast was much lower than expected, seeing new jobs at only 37k when analysts were expecting a forecast of 111k.

   2. ISM Services PMI data came in at 49.9 when 52 was expected, suggesting lowering demand in the services sector.

3. The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged yesterday as expected at 2.75%.

4. Bitcoin

   remains in focus after reaching a new record high two weeks ago at $112,00. However, the price seems to have rejected new resistance below $107,000 so the technical picture is looking somewhat bearish.

5. The Asian session saw the strongest major currency in the Forex market as the New Zealand Dollar, while the weakest was the Japanese Yen. The major pairs

   EUR/USD

   and

   GBP/USD

   are close to long-term high prices, with the GBP/USD curency pair leading the way.

6. There will be a release today of US Unemployment Claims data.