A quiet week in the market is dominated so far by a powerful rise in the price of cocoa futures to new long-term highs.
- Cocoa futures have risen very strongly over recent days, reaching a new multi-year high price yesterday, which will keep trend traders interested in this commodity on the long side. It has been exhibiting a powerful bullish trend for well over one year. Cocoa futures are up by more than 25% since the start of 2024.
- US stock markets still look bullish despite the more hawkish central bank rhetoric, with major US equity indices such as the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 close to all-time highs. However, short-term price action is become more consolidative.
- In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar has been the strongest major currency since the Tokyo open today. The Japanese Yen has been the weakest. However, the numbers are so low as to be effectively meaningless: the Forex market has been quiet this week. The greatest volatility recently has been seen in the USD/JPY currency pair.
- Federal Reserve member Harker said yesterday that he sees the US economy as on track for a soft landing, and that real progress has been made getting inflation down. This is no surprise from him though, so it has little effect on the US Dollar.
- Some analysts think the Bank of Japan may begin raising rates soon, possibly next month in March, abandoning negative rates and an ultra-loose monetary policy which have been in effect for years.
- New Zealand’s Unemployment data released yesterday showed employment ticking up a little higher than expected. However, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0%.
- The EUR/USD currency pair may have made a double bottom at $1.0725.
- There will be a release today of New Zealand Unemployment data.
