AUD/USD Technical Forecast: Sideways To Higher Trading

The structure of the technical pattern for AUD/USD suggests the move towards higher levels is incomplete and may eventually reach .82 and possible .84.

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The model we are following suggests the upward correction that began in September 2015 remains incomplete. According to Elliott Wave Theory, we are counting this pattern as a complex upward correction subdivided as w-x-y and built with Expanded Flat-Triangle-Zigzag.

We appear to be finished or nearly so with the expanded flat pattern, which is the (b) wave of the zigzag. We cannot confirm if the flat pattern is complete just yet. Regardless, this places the market in the last half of the ‘y’ wave, a zigzag.

As a trader, I am interested in the .7940 level. Multiple Elliott Wave models imply a move above this green line opens the door to higher levels at .8050. Between the price levels of .8050 to .8100, the models begin to diverge again.

If AUD/USD does move to new highs, the higher probability pattern shifts towards being in the (c) wave or terminal wave of the upward move. This would be an ending wave that has some wave relationships near 82 cents and 84 cents.

IG Client Sentiment is running at near parity at -1.02. Therefore, sentiment is not extreme at this point. Keep an eye to see if a shift in sentiment ensues and lines up with the Elliott Wave forecast. See how live traders are positioned in AUDUSD here.

Three DailyFX analysts selected the Australian Dollar as their top trade for 2017. Read pages 13, 18, 20 of DailyFX’s Top Trades of 2017.

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, CEWA-M

Jeremy is a Certified Elliott Wave Analyst with a Master’s designation. Jeremy provides Elliott Wave analysis on key markets as well as Elliott Wave educational resources.

Jeremy’s favorite Elliott Wave Resources:

Elliott Wave Patterns: What is a Zigzag?

3 Elliott Wave Flat Patterns to Know and Understand

Learn more about the Elliott Wave patterns by receiving our beginner and advanced Elliott Wave guides.

Also, view these one-hour webinar recordings on the specific patterns:

Elliott Wave Impulse Patterns

Elliott Wave Zigzag Patterns

Elliott Wave Flat Patterns

Elliott Wave Triangle Patterns

Elliott Wave Diagonal Patterns

Starting Your Elliott Wave Counting

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