2020 Election, Biden-Trump Spread, Presidential Debate, AUD/USD Outlook - Talking Points
- Trump popularity slowly returning despite a surge of US-based coronavirus cases
- Democrats drafting $2.4 trillion aid package as urgency for more stimulus swells
- AUD/USD testing key support at 0.7018 – will a break here accelerate the selloff?
40 DAYS UNTIL THE US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
40 days to go until the 2020 presidential election and the incumbent President Donald Trump’s popularity is slowing rising despite a growing number of coronavirus cases. While his disapproval rating briefly peaked at a 3-year high at around 56.4 percent, it has since retreated as his popularity rating slowly edges higher from a one-year low of 40.2 to now 42.8 percent.
2020 US Election Polls
Coronavirus cases in the US currently stand at around 6.97 million with deaths approximating a little over 202k. The recent spike appears to be one of the factors roiling domestic equity markets as the specter of reimposed or extended lockdown measures haunts hopes of a stable recovery.
Policymakers in Washington are locking horns over how to craft another desperately-needed stimulus bill as the economic effects of the previous one fizzle out. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi said Democrats are ready for negotiations on a $2.4 trillion aid package which may pass as soon as next week in the House. The cost of intransigence is high, and sustained delays may further drag down stocks and risk-oriented currencies.
AUD/USD Price Analysis
Since topping at the December 2019 swing-high at 0.7393, AUD/USD has retreated close to five percent and briefly tested former resistance-turned-support at 0.7018. What happens here may be critical. Breaking below that barrier with follow-through could signal to traders that underlying confidence in the pair’s upside potential is absent. As a result, bearish sentiment may begin to swell and further drive AUD/USD lower.
AUD/USD - Daily Chart
AUD/USD chart created using TradingView
On the other hand, a bounce from 0.7018 could broadcast a sign of confidence to the extent that traders interpret the recovery as a sign that the pair is not quite ready to capitulate. In that scenario, AUD/USD may rise but its gains could be capped at a familiar but formidable resistance zone between 0.7181 and 0.7206.
--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or@ZabelinDimitrion Twitter