XRP Price May Crash 55% If Strategic Crypto Reserve Inclusion Fails

XRP price has lost the momentum it had in November 2024 and has moved into a technical bear market after falling by 25% from the highest point this year.

Ripple (XRP) retreated to $2.5 on Friday as crypto investors waited for the upcoming crypto summit at the White House.

This summit will shed light on Donald Trump’s plan for a strategic crypto reserve and the potential coins to be included. In a statement on Sunday, he hinted that his preferred coins would be Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA). However, he only signed for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve on Thursday. 

Analysts are pessimistic that the US will create a Strategic XRP Reserve. A Polymarket poll with about $450,000 in assets has placed these odds at just 29%.

In a recent statement, Willy Woo, a popular analyst with over 1 million X followers, argued that having a Strategic XRP Reserve was a bad idea. He argued that no other country would buy a US-controlled XRP and that Bitcoin was the only geopolitically neutral asset like gold. 

Other analysts, including Tyler Winklevoss, argued that XRP and other altcoins like SOL and ADA did not meet the criteria for a reserve. He added that an asset needed to be hard money that is a proven store of value like gold.

Further, it is unclear whether a divided Congress would approve creating an XRP reserve. To do that, Trump would need a majority of votes in the House of Representatives and 60 in the Senate. 

On the positive side for XRP price, the odds that the Securities and Exchange Commission will approve a spot ETF are high. They have jumped to almost 80% on Polymarket. There are also odds that the SEC will end its litigation against Ripple Labs as it has done with other companies like Uniswap, Coinbase, and Gemini.

The daily chart shows that the XRP price peaked at $3.4162 in January and has crashed by 25% to the current $2.50. It has dropped below the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level at $2.7315.

XRP has moved to the 50-day moving average and has formed a head and shoulders chart pattern. This pattern comprises a head at $3.4162 and the shoulders at around $3. The neckline of this pattern at $2.

Therefore, the coin will likely have a strong bearish breakdown as sellers target the 61.8% retracement at $1.6215, down by 35% from the current level. A drop below that level will signal more downside to $1.1340, the 78.6% retracement level, which is 55% below the current level.