Moodys Cuts US Credit Rating, Bitcoin Doesnt Flinch

Bitcoin price remained in an extended consolidation after the U.S. lost its last triple-A credit rating on Friday. 

Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $103,000, 2.8% below its highest level this month. This slight pullback has brought its market cap to $2.045 trillion. 

Moody’s US credit rating downgrade

The biggest macro-related news on Friday came from Moody’s, one of the big three credit rating agencies globally. In a statement, the company downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing the worsening fiscal situation in the US.

Moody’s joined the other two agencies in removing the triple-A rating. S&P Global was the first one to cut the rating in 2011, and was then followed by Fitch Ratings in 2022. The rating downgrade came a year after Moody’s changed its outlook of the US economy to negative. 

The rating downgrade came as the US fiscal situation has worsened, with the total public debt jumping to over $36.8 trillion. Medicare and Medicaid spending jumped to $1.6 trillion, while social security, defense, and interest have soared to $1.5 trillion, $900 billion, and $1.02 trillion, respectively. 

While Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency is cutting expenses, analysts believe that it will not have a major impact on reducing the budget deficit. That’s partly because the Trump administration is also keen to cut taxes, increasing the deficit by $4.5 trillion in the next ten years. 

The US credit rating cut may be a positive catalyst for Bitcoin, an asset slowly emerging as a safe haven. For example, Bitcoin has done better than the stock market since the Liberation Day speech. It also did better than stocks during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Bitcoin is also supported by supply and demand dynamics. Its supply on exchanges and over-the-counter markets, has continued falling, while demand is rising. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $41 billion in inflows since January last year, while companies like Strategy and Twenty One have continued buying.

Bitcoin price technical analysis

The daily chart shows that Bitcoin price has remained in a consolidation phase in the past few days, with its volume continuing its downtrend. 

On the positive side, Bitcoin has remained above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average. It has also formed a bullish pennant pattern, a popular continuation sign. This pattern comprises of a vertical line and a symmetrical triangle, resulting in a strong bullish breakout.

Bitcoin has also formed a cup-and-handle pattern, comprising a rounded bottom and some consolidation. These patterns point to more gains in the coming weeks. A move above the upper side of the cup will point to more gains, potentially to $110,000 and above.