JD Vance Departs For Islamabad Amid Deep Uncertainty Over Whether Iran Will Show

Iran peace talks entered their most uncertain phase yet Monday as Vice President JD Vance prepared to lead a delegation to Islamabad alongside envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Axios reported, even as Iran’s Foreign Ministry formally stated it has “no plans” for a second round and Tehran suspected the invitation was cover for a surprise US military strike before Wednesday’s ceasefire expiry.

Iran peace talks are entering their most consequential 48 hours with the ceasefire set to expire Wednesday and no Iranian delegation publicly confirmed. The US delegation is traveling regardless. Pakistan has kept Islamabad under security lockdown in anticipation of a second round, with thousands of paramilitary and army personnel deployed through the Red Zone.

The US team, the same configuration that led the failed first round on April 11 and 12, is led by Vance and includes Witkoff and Kushner. Two US Air Force C-17 cargo planes had already landed at a Pakistani air base Sunday with security equipment and vehicles, signaling the delegation was committed to arriving whether or not Iran confirmed participation.

Tehran has told intermediaries it believes the US announcement of talks is designed to build a “blame game” narrative: publicly committing to negotiations while preparing military strikes to coincide with the ceasefire expiry. The Sunday seizure of the Touska, arriving hours after Trump announced the Pakistan talks, reinforced that suspicion. Iran’s Foreign Ministry described US statements about negotiations as “a media game.”

Iran’s chief negotiator Ghalibaf said in state television remarks Saturday that Iran’s armed forces remain “ready” even while pursuing diplomacy, framing the two tracks as simultaneous rather than alternative. The original ceasefire was announced hours before a midnight deadline during which Trump had threatened “a whole civilization will die tonight.” Iran’s negotiating team arrived at the first round dressed in black, in mourning for those killed in the war. The level of institutional mistrust is not rhetorical.

What Pakistan Is Attempting as Mediator

Pakistan has framed this engagement as an ongoing “Islamabad process” rather than a single discrete round, giving itself diplomatic room to survive a second collapse without the entire framework breaking down. Prime Minister Sharif spoke with Iranian President Pezeshkian on Sunday. Pakistan’s army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir has served as the primary interlocutor between delegations throughout the conflict.

Despite Iran’s public rejection, Pakistani authorities completed Red Zone security preparations, suggesting Islamabad has reasons to believe Iran may still participate. An Iranian parliamentary official told Al Jazeera that Iran would “likely” send a team Monday or Tuesday, a gap between the Foreign Ministry’s statement and the parliamentary official’s remark that Pakistan is actively working to close.

What the Outcome Means for Crypto Markets

The next 48 hours will determine which scenario plays out for Bitcoin price markets. A ceasefire extension or genuine deal replicates the April 8 template: oil crashes and BTC surges, potentially toward $80,000. A confirmed collapse with resumed strikes tests the institutional demand floor below $70,000.

The Iran nuclear sticking point remains the hardest to bridge: the US requires Iran to permanently halt uranium enrichment, and Iran has said it will not surrender its 440-kilogram stockpile. A second round would need to find a formula, such as third-party custody of the stockpile, that neither side has publicly endorsed but that both have reportedly discussed through Pakistani intermediaries.