Bitcoin Posts Third-worst Q1 Return Since 2013 At -23.21%

Bitcoin posted a -23.21% return in Q1 2026 and marked the third-worst first-quarter performance since 2013 according to CoinGlass data.

The loss falls far below Bitcoin’s (BTC) historical Q1 average of 45.90% and sits well below the median return of -2.26%.

Only two prior first quarters posted worse performance: Q1 2018 at -49.7% and Q1 2014 at -37.42%.

Ethereum fared worse with -32.17% in Q1 2026, also the third-worst since 2016, trailing its historical Q1 average of 66.45% and median return of 4.37%.

Bitcoin historical Q1 pattern shows mixed performance across years

Bitcoin’s quarterly returns since 2013 show no consistent first-quarter pattern. Strong Q1 gains in 2013 (+539.96%), 2021 (+103.17%), 2023 (+71.77%), and 2024 (+68.68%) contrast sharply with losses in 2014 (-37.42%), 2015 (-24.14%), 2018 (-49.7%), 2022 (-1.46%), 2025 (-11.82%), and 2026 (-23.21%).

The historical Q1 average of 45.90% gets pulled higher by extreme outliers like 2013’s +539.96% and 2021’s +103.17%.

The median Q1 return of -2.26% provides a more accurate picture, showing first quarters tend toward slight losses more often than gains.

Q4 historically posts the strongest performance with a 77.07% average and 47.73% median. Q2 averages 27.11% with a 7.57% median, while Q3 averages 6.05% with a 0.96% median.

Recent years show increasing volatility. 2024 posted strong gains across Q1 (+68.68%), Q3 (+0.96%), and Q4 (+47.73%) while Q2 dropped -11.92%. 2025 saw Q2 (+29.74%) and Q3 (+6.31%) gains offset by Q1 (-11.82%) and Q4 (-23.07%) losses.

2026 Q1 decline follows October liquidation event

The Q1 2026 loss follows Bitcoin’s October 2025 all-time high and the October 10 liquidation event that triggered $19 billion in market-wide liquidations.

Bitcoin fell from $126,080 to current levels around $66,000, a 48% decline from the peak.

Q1 2026’s -23.21% return exceeds Q4 2025’s -23.07% loss, creating back-to-back losing quarters.

The last time Bitcoin posted consecutive quarterly declines occurred in 2022, which saw losses across all four quarters: -1.46%, -56.2%, -2.57%, and -14.75%.