Bitcoin Falls As US Shutdown Odds Hit 78% In Prediction Markets

Bitcoin extended losses as US shutdown odds climbed toward 80% on prediction markets, with analysts citing political risk while gold and silver hit record highs.

Bitcoin (BTC) declined amid rising political uncertainty in the United States as concerns mounted over a potential government shutdown, according to market analysts.

The probability of a U.S. government shutdown has reached 78% in prediction markets, with the budget deadline approaching on January 30, 2026, according to forecasting data. Bipartisan negotiations have stalled, creating political risk that has affected short-term market sentiment.

Analysts speaking to The Block cited funding uncertainty and the political impasse as primary pressure points on risk assets. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer increased shutdown risk by stating, “I cannot support a DHS budget bill that lacks safeguards to control Immigration and Customs Enforcement,” according to reports. Senate Democrats have not explicitly stated they would block passage of the Department of Homeland Security budget bill.

Rick Maeda, analyst at Presto Research, attributed the recent Bitcoin decline to macroeconomic factors such as political uncertainty in the United States rather than cryptocurrency-specific issues. The U.S. Congress currently faces a budget impasse and political conflict, which increases the likelihood of a shutdown, Maeda said.

Vincent Liu, analyst at Kronos Research, stated that the market is pricing in the risk of a U.S. government shutdown, noting that the probability of a closure at Polymarket has risen to 75%. Both Maeda and Liu indicated that macroeconomic developments will continue to be the key determining factor for Bitcoin and alternative cryptocurrencies in the coming period.

Investors are expected to closely monitor this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and U.S. Producer Price Index data for indications about policy outlook and inflation, according to analysts. Maeda stated that the stabilization of exchange-traded fund flows and Bitcoin’s ability to maintain recent support levels are important short-term signals in the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin continued its decline over the weekend as government shutdown risk increased, while gold and silver reached new record highs, according to market data. Gold and silver reached unprecedented levels for the first time in history, the data showed.

Market analyst Ross Norman, speaking to Reuters, said he expects gold prices to rise this year and to average at elevated levels.