Analyst Says Bitcoin Has 88% Chance Of Rising To $122K By Late 2026

Economist Timothy Peterson says Bitcoin may have strong odds of rising over the next 10 months.

In a post on X, he noted that 50% of the past 24 months have closed positively for Bitcoin (BTC). Based on historical data going back to 2011, that reading implies an 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now.

Peterson estimates the average forward return at exp(60%) − 1, or about 82%. That would translate to a BTC price near $122,000 over the next 10 months, based on current levels.

He described the indicator as an informal cycle tool. It measures frequency, not magnitude. In other words, it counts how many months were positive, not how large the gains were.

Bitcoin could move sideways for months and the metric could still fall. Even so, Peterson says it has helped identify inflection points in past cycles.

A chart shared with the post shows that stronger readings in positive-month frequency have historically aligned with higher forward returns.

Nevertheless, the posts drew divided reactions from users on X.

One user called it a “rare confluence of historical data,” arguing the setup points to a major recovery by the end of 2026. The 82% expected return, they said, remains a guiding signal for long-term investors.

Others were more cautious. One user wrote “Bitcoin doesn’t give a damn about historical averages.”