Natural Gas

US natural gas futures traded around $3.7/MMBtu, having fallen to $3.4 in the previous session, which was the lowest since June 2021. The prices in the US are down more than 16% since the beginning of 2023, the worst start of a year on record on the back of lower demand due to warmer-than-normal weather and as gas output is again approaching record levels. The latest data showed that average gas output in the US Lower 48 states climbed to 98.3 bcfd so far in January, approaching a monthly record of 99.9 bcfd in November 2022 and up from 96.7 bcfd in December. Looking further, the Freeport LNG export plant in Texas, forced to go offline in June following a fire, again delayed the restart to the second half of January, leaving more supply on the domestic market. Traders worry the plant will only be back online during the first or second quarter due to the need for further work to satisfy federal regulators.

Historically, Natural gas reached an all time high of 15.78 in December of 2005. Natural gas - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on January of 2023.

Natural gas is expected to trade at 4.01 USD/MMBtu by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 4.86 in 12 months time.