Foreign Bank Crisis May Impact Indian IT Services FY24 Growth: Analysts

The crisis in US and European banking may impact the FY24 growth of India’s IT services industry, which counts banking financial services and insurance (BFSI) as its largest customer base and according to Nasscom, brought 41 per cent of its revenue in FY23.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCL Technologies, Mphasis, LTIMindtree (LTIM) are among Indian IT firms that have exposure to some troubled banks.

TCS has exposure to US’ Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Credit Suisse and UBS, which has agreed to take over the Swiss bank. “We estimate SVB exposure is 10-20bps for TCS, Infosys and LTIM that may lead to a provision in 4Q23. While this has driven a correction and taken multiples down by 0.5-1SDs, estimates don’t factor in the increased EPS risk from any further slowdown in spending,” said a JP Morgan report.

As SVB has filed for bankruptcy, analysts expect that TCS and Infosys may create provisions for impact in Q4 FY23.

Analysts believe there could be two scenarios building out for the Indian IT sector. In the medium-term, IT firms will have to provision for the impact of these troubled banks. The long-term could be a scenario that emerged after the Lehman crisis in 2008 when banks focused on costs and business projects, benefiting the IT sector.

Medium to short term will be a difficult period for the sector, as the banking crisis will impact deal flows. “Q4 may not have an impact, except in the case of SVB. But this may impact deal flow for the next few quarters. Going ahead pricing could also come under pressure,” said Pareekh Jain, chief executive officer of EIIR.

“We remain UW (underweight) the sector as we expect rev/earnings growth in FY24/25 will disappoint expectations at peak multiples. We expect 1Q and FY24 guides and commentary driving a sharp reset to sector expectations as a weak 1Q becomes more visible,” said J P Morgan.