It was a lively start to the year for gold but it's quieted over the past three days as it consolidates near $1850.
It now sits just above the 200-day moving average and just below the 100-day. It's also halfway between the the November high and low.
It all adds up to an uncertain market. Biden is going to unveil a proposal for trillions in spending tomorrow but rates are rising, bringing competition from bonds. The latest rebound in the dollar is also gold-negative.
There is a seasonal tailwind through February but traditional gift-giving at the lunar new year might not materialize in usual way.
I get the sense that the market wants to see if the Fed is truly serious about letting inflation run hot. If they are, there's a chance that it gets away from the central bank, something that could spark a boom in gold.